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Alberta Farmland Value 

Study 2024

(Farmland Value Trends and Technical Price Analysis)

Prepared by:  Trent Klarenbach, B.S.A., PAg

Klarenbach Research

www.klarenbach.ca

July 13, 2025

1. Executive Summary

This report examines historical Alberta farmland values through an inflation-adjusted lens, combining technical analysis tools (logarithmic scale, RSI, moving averages, Fibonacci Retracement and support and resistance analysis).

The analysis is based on the Statistics Canada Value per acre of farm land and buildings at July 1 Table, which has been converted to 2024 dollars using the Bank of Canada inflation calculator. 

Key findings include:

• A steady, long-term upward trend in real land values with cyclical corrections.

• The analysis identifies distinct historical cycles, including a significant boom in the 1970s, followed by a severe correction that lasted over a decade (approximately 1982-1993). 

• Technical indicators (RSI and moving averages) highlight periods of potential market overextension and subsequent support from historical resistance levels.

• Historical declines (e.g., 1930–1941, 1980–1992) and technical indicators, combined with current overbought conditions (RSI 95.63 as of December 30, 2024), suggest a potential correction in the near term.  

The findings suggest that technical signals offer nuanced insights into cyclical patterns and preceding catalysts, including interest rate hikes, shifts in commodity prices, and policy changes.

This analysis was inspired by insights from Kevin Gunn, particularly regarding the identification of the 62% retracement from the 1980s high to the 1990s low, and his application of Elliott Wave Theory in Saskatchewan land values.

2. Introduction

Alberta’s farmland has long been a cornerstone of Canadian agriculture, reflecting both local and global economic trends. 

This study aims to provide a robust, data-driven assessment of farmland values by adjusting historical prices for inflation and applying technical analysis techniques to identify market dynamics. 

The objective is to assist policymakers, financial institutions, and stakeholders in making informed decisions.

Objectives:

1. Analyze long-term trends in Alberta farmland values using inflation-adjusted data.

2. Identify historical cycles, including peak-to-trough declines and recovery periods.

3. Apply technical analysis tools (logarithmic scale, RSI, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements/extensions, Elliott Wave Theory) to assess current market conditions.

4. Anticipate future price trend changes.

3. Data and Methodology

3.1 Data Sources

• Statistics Canada (Statscan): Table 32-10-0047.01 (formally CANSIM 002-0003)
  

• Inflation Data: The Bank of Canada Inflation Calculator was used to convert nominal land values into 2024 dollars.

3.2 Inflation Adjustment

Using the Bank of Canada Inflation Calculator, each historical data point was adjusted to reflect 2024 purchasing power. This process ensures that comparisons over time account for the eroding effects of inflation, enabling a clearer view of real value changes.

3.3 Technical Analysis Methods

The study employs technical analysis techniques commonly used by market technicians to interpret price trends, momentum, and potential turning points in the inflation-adjusted data on Alberta farmland values.

3.3.1 Logarithmic Scale: 

A chart scale that displays percentage changes equally rather than absolute values. Used for long-term data to visualize exponential growth and reduce distortion.

Application: 

The land value price chart utilizes a logarithmic vertical scale, essential for analyzing long-term data with substantial growth, as it displays equal percentage changes with equal vertical distances.

Benefit: 

Enhances the visibility of growth trends over long periods and mitigates the distortion of exponential changes. 

3.3.2 Trendlines

A straight line connecting two or more price points on a chart. It helps identify the direction and strength of a trend. Upper and lower trendlines can signal resistance and support levels.

Application:

• A channel was drawn using separate trendlines that connect the highs and lows.

• The ascending nature of the trendline indicates a bullish trend in the price levels.

• The current price level is below the upper trendline connecting the 1921 and 1980 highs.

• Trendlines often act as support and resistance.

• Awareness that the current price level is below the potential resistance of the upper trendline suggests a continuation of rising farmland values.

3.3.3 Exponential Moving Average (EMA):

A moving average that places greater weight on recent data points. Used to identify trends by smoothing price data. A 2-year EMA in this report indicates short- to medium-term momentum in farmland values.

Application: 

A 2-period (2-year) Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is plotted on the price chart. 

• The EMA smooths price data to help identify the trend direction, giving more weight to recent years.

Benefit: 

Farmland values crossing the 2-year EMA signal a trend change.

Analysis: 

• Prices consistently above the EMA indicate an uptrend.

• The current inflation-adjusted price (~4042 on the chart) is above the 2-Year EMA (~3960), confirming the current strong uptrend.

• Current farmland values are approximately 2% above the 2-year EMA.

• Declines in farmland values have followed crosses below the 2-year Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

3.3.4 Relative Strength Index (RSI):

A momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, while readings below 30 are considered oversold.

Application:

Use the RSI indicator to detect overbought or oversold conditions.

Benefit: 

Helps pinpoint potential turning points in market sentiment, providing early warnings of market reversals.

Analysis:

A 14-period (14-Year) RSI is shown in the lower panel. This momentum oscillator measures the speed and change of price movements on a scale of 0 to 100.

• Readings above 70 traditionally indicate potentially "overbought" conditions.

• Readings below 30 suggest potentially "oversold" conditions.

• Historical peaks near 83.83 (1968) and 95.47 (1980) preceded periods of declines in land values.

• The current RSI reading of 95.63 is exceptionally high by historical standards, signalling strong upward momentum, but also potential market extension.

Figure 1. Technical indicators applied to inflation-adjusted farmland values: note RSI at 96.22 and price alignment with long-term resistance trendline.

3.3.5 Support and Resistance Analysis:

Support is a price level where demand is strong enough to prevent further decline. Resistance is a price level where selling pressure may prevent prices from rising further. These levels are used to predict price reversals or continuations.

Application: 

Examine how previous resistance levels have transitioned into support.

Benefit: 

Provides insight into the durability of price levels and helps forecast future market behaviour. 

Analysis: 

• These are historical price levels where buying (support) or selling (resistance) has tended to emerge. A key principle observed is that previous resistance, once broken, can become future support.

• The data does not display historical examples of past resistance acting as support.

• However, we anticipate the resistance of the 1980 high of ~2024 (inflation-adjusted)  will act as a magnet for values and could provide support in the future.

• A return to the inflation-adjusted 1992 value level of ~781 should not be discounted.

3.3.6 Fibonacci Retracements

A tool used to identify potential reversal levels by dividing a price range into key ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%). Commonly used to anticipate areas of support during price corrections.

Benefit:

Assists in projecting price corrections and extension targets based on historical price behaviour. 

Application: 

Apply Fibonacci tools to identify potential support and resistance levels.

• After a major trend move, prices often "retrace" a portion of that move before continuing the trend. 

• Key Fibonacci retracement levels are calculated as percentages of the prior move: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. 

• These levels can act as potential turning points or areas of consolidation during a correction.

Analysis: 

Retracement of the 1981-1993 Decline:

• The major correction saw inflation-adjusted values fall 61.4% from the peak near 2024 (1980) to the trough near 781 (1992), aligning with the key 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement level.

• Future inflation-adjusted value corrections in the range of 50-61.8% or even 78.6% should not be discounted.

3.3.7 Elliott Wave Analysis

A form of technical analysis that identifies cycles in financial markets. It posits that market prices move in a repeating pattern of five upward (impulsive) waves followed by three downward (corrective) waves.

Application: 

Identifies market cycles through a 5-wave impulsive structure followed by a 3-wave corrective structure.

Benefit: 

By recognizing the 5-wave impulse and 3-wave correction patterns, market participants can understand the overall direction of a market movement and capitalize on it. 

Analysis: 

Elliott Wave theory identifies market cycles through a 5-wave impulsive structure followed by a 3-wave corrective structure:

Primary Wave Structure

Wave 1:  0–1930:

• Impulsive Wave, culminating with the 1930 peak.

Wave 2:  1930–1941: 

• Corrective Wave (11 years), with the trough in 1941. 

Wave 3:  1941–1980: 

• New Impulsive wave (39 years), culminating in the 1980 peak.

Wave 4:  1980-1992:

• Corrective Wave (12 years),

Wave 5:  1992–current (2024): 

• New Impulsive wave (32 years). 

• When Wave 5 is completed, a Corrective wave will follow, potentially leading to a significant decline.

• A return to the previous resistance level at the peak of Wave 3 (~2024) is anticipated.

• Wave 5 often corrects to the Wave 4 level (~781).

• A return to the inflation-adjusted level of ~781 should not be discounted.

Figure 2. Elliott Wave Structure Applied to Alberta Farmland Values (1921–2024). Wave 5 may be approaching completion, implying the potential for a corrective phase.

3.3.8 Decline-Duration Analysis

Analysis of the length of time that farmland values or market prices experience a period of decline. This analysis can identify typical durations of market downturns, potential recovery timelines, and the impact of various factors on the length of declines.

Application:

Evaluate the duration from peak to trough and subsequent peaks.

Benefit: 

Offers a measure of market cyclicality and recovery speed, essential for long-term forecasting.

Analysis:

The data reveals three significant declines in farmland values, each associated with broader economic downturns:

Table 1: Historical Declines in Farmland Values

4. Conclusion

The analysis indicates that Alberta farmland values have grown significantly over the long term when adjusted for inflation, despite experiencing cyclical corrections. 

Technical indicators, such as the RSI and moving averages, provide valuable signals for market turning points, while historical support and resistance levels offer insight into the resilience of land values.

Key Findings:

• Integrated Analysis: 

  • The combination of inflation-adjusted data and advanced technical analysis provides a nuanced understanding of historical land values.

• Cyclical Trends: 

  • Technical tools such as RSI, moving averages, and Elliott Wave analysis reveal distinct cyclical patterns that align with broader economic cycles.

• Support and Resistance: 

  • Historical support and resistance levels, particularly those aligning with Fibonacci analysis, are crucial in forecasting future price behaviour.

Implications:

• For Policymakers: 

  • Monitoring indicators and potential catalysts can help in designing supportive policies that stabilize the farmland market during periods of downturn.

• For Investors and Lenders: 

  • Understanding the timing of cycles and technical signals can enhance risk management and investment decisions.

• For Farmers: 

  • Awareness of market cycles and trends can inform strategies related to land sales, refinancing, or expansion.
    

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on historical data and technical interpretations. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not constitute investment advice.

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Trent Klarenbach

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Nothing written, expressed, or implied here should be considered investment advice or an admonition to buy, sell, or trade any security or financial instrument. As always, do your own due diligence.