Soybean Oil Update

On December 14, I published Soybean Oil Looking Weak.

This publication was followed by a 6% rise in price, prompting a further review of my Target 1 at 49.21.

To do this, I will look at the Daily chart to get a clearer perspective of the recent price action.

As annotated on the Daily chart above:

• Price is below a flattening 200 Day Moving Average

• Price is below a declining 50 DMA

• Price the blue VWAP from the October 20 high.

Notice the confluence of the blue VWAP and the green 50 DMA.

I see considerable overhead resistance with the Moving Averages and the VWAP.

My experience tells me that a break below a rising 200 DMA is followed by a retest and often an overshoot of that moving average, so I am aware of that possibility.

I also drew some trendlines forming a falling wedge suggesting a corrective Wave 4 A-B-C-D-E triangle pattern suggesting a 5th Wave to new highs, contrary to my Target 1 idea.

I need a new high above the 200 DMA and upper trendline before I concede my Target 1.

We try to be aware of bullish and bearish scenarios to react quickly to a trend change.

As usual, we will continue to assess my price target with each candle.