Interest Rates
Remember this 5-year Canadian government bond yield chart from a few months ago?
Interest rates likely going higher.
There is a generation of us who have no idea what "normal" interest rates are.
Canola and the 50 Day
I once paid $250 USD for a one-hour trading strategy session with a public social media figure.
The guy managed a car dealership and published stock ideas on social media.
He had his own newsletter.
He is good, and I think he has his own fund.
A Trend Follower.
The strategy was simple.
Buy above the 200 Day Moving Average, preferably rising.
Sell half below the 50 DMA and the rest below the 200 DMA
Today, Canola is trading below the 50 DMA
Gold
Grain Report Chart of the Day
Gold Bugs will have some reprieve.
They never sell, so that is a good thing.
Oil
This Light Crude Oil setup might get the bulls and Elliott Wave enthusiasts all hot and bothered.
It feels like either $100 or it pukes.
Need new highs or new lows to develop strong conviction.
Soybeans
Grain Report Chart of the Day
Soybeans are at an important level.
The declining 200-week Moving Average; the previous supply between 1180 and 1200 needs to bring in buyers.
I doubt it holds, but meh.
Watch oil.
Good ole Canola
I don't trust rallies above declining 200-week moving averages.
But if they act as support.
And begin to flatten out.
And the price makes new highs.
It begins to get interesting.
Last Week
This past week was a bit of a shitshow for me with AIM.
The show was fun.
Great conversations.
But the three days in the tent were a grind.
Regular programming to resume next week.
KC Wheat
KC Wheat is making a third attempt at 750.
Will three times be the charm?
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Oil
Grain Report Chart of the Day
WTI Oil finds sellers at the green 50- Day Moving Average.
The rally may not be over; however, it is prime for a slowdown.
WTI, Bean Oil and Canola price action is highly correlated, so consider this despite Canola's breakout this morning.
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Fertilizer
Not a local bid, but Futs have rallied off the low.
I find this current price testing the fib level interesting.
I also prefer to see Bearish Divergence between the price and RSI (lower low in price, higher low in RSI) as we saw back in 2023.
Meaning, I like to see a low below the recent low.
Regardless, this could be a good opportunity to price Urea.
Nov Canola
Blue trendlines or orange trendlines.
Regardless, each intersects at key fib levels.
IMO, the 800 level remains significant.
The market opens in 5 minutes so..
Images
The new software is buggy and unable to upload a chart atm.
Fertilizer Bids
Hi Trent, can we use this platform to post fertilizer bids also to use as negotiation power with our retailers?
Join Klarenbach Grain Report Community
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