US T-Bond Futures

Four week rally

Identified four weeks ago.

Technical Analysis wins again

#cmdtyView

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Wheat eases to 50 as boards stay soft on harvest wrap and a further reduced Black Sea premium.

Canola eases to 42 on continued Prairie supply digestion.

Durum holds 48.

Corn holds 36.

Soybeans ease to 43.

Main drivers:

CGC samples show only 34.2% of CWRS grading No. 1, with fusarium a key downgrade factor.

Russia’s winter planting catch-up and Azov ship permits further drain the Black Sea wheat premium.

Prairie talk stayed thin.

Moderate confidence.

Continuity off October 29 (51 / 48 / 43 / 36 / 44).

Russian winter planting has nearly caught up.

14.9 million ha of winter grains were in as of Oct 23, just 1% behind last year.

Two weeks earlier, the lag was 10%.

That takes away one of the wheat bulls' important narratives.

Buy and sell signals for grains and oilseeds in the Grain Report 👇

https://www.grainreport.klarenbach.ca/

Grain Report Chart of the Day

CBOT Wheat

Weekly Nearby

Looking for support from the green 50-week Moving Average.

Critical leading into the weekend

#cmdtyView

Prairie farmers delivered 1.33 million tonnes of grain in the week ending Oct 25.

Crop-year deliveries reached 17.06 million tonnes, compared with 16.84 million a year earlier.

Canola deliveries to date are 5.43 million tonnes, up 32.0% from a year ago.

Canadian processors crushed 1.2 million tonnes of canola in September, up 21.9% from September 2025.

January canola settled C$2.60 lower at C$783.10/tonne on Oct 29.

December Chicago wheat settled 4.75 cents higher at US$6.0375/bu after reports China's state grain buyer asked about U.S. soft red winter wheat.

https://www.grainreport.klarenbach.ca/p/prairie-deliveries-canola-crush-and-china-wheat-interest-oct-30-2026

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Wheat eases to 51 as boards stay soft on harvest wrap and a reduced Black Sea premium.

Canola eases to 43 on continued Prairie supply digestion and weaker oils.

Durum holds 48.

Corn holds 36.

Soybeans ease to 44.

Main drivers:

Manitoba harvest reached 94% as of Oct 27, with canola and spring wheat at 99%.

Russia issued grain ship permits for the Sea of Azov on Oct 28, the first since July 10, draining the remaining Black Sea premium.

Prairie talk stayed thin.

Moderate confidence.

Continuity off October 28 (52 / 48 / 44 / 36 / 45).

This week's magic Soybean number is 12.40.

Russia gave grain ships permits to leave the Sea of Azov on Oct 28, the first since July 10.

The Bank of Canada raised its rate 25 bp to 2.5% the same day.

Manitoba’s harvest was 94% done as of Oct 27.

U.S. wheat net sales hit 849,800 t for Oct 16–22, the most for any week of 2026/27 so far.

Next up: Azov shipping, the Dec 9 Bank of Canada decision and Saskatchewan’s final crop report on Nov 5.

https://www.grainreport.klarenbach.ca/p/bank-of-canada-azov-shipping-and-us-wheat-sales-oct-29-2026

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Wheat eases to 52 as boards stay soft on a reduced Black Sea premium and harvest wrap.

Canola eases to 44 on continued supply digestion after a near-complete Prairie harvest.

Durum holds 48.

Corn holds 36.

Soybeans hold 45.

Main drivers:

Manitoba harvest reached 94% as of Oct 27, with canola and spring wheat at 99%.

Wheat futures remain soft near multi-month lows after the Black Sea risk premium largely faded, though Canadian exports stay strong.

Prairie talk stayed thin.

Moderate confidence.

Continuity off October 27 (53 / 48 / 45 / 36 / 45).

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Wheat eases to 53 as boards stay soft on a reduced Black Sea premium and harvest wrap.

Canola eases to 45 on continued supply digestion after a near-complete Prairie harvest.

Durum holds 48.

Corn holds 36.

Soybeans ease to 45.

Main drivers:

Saskatchewan harvest reached 97% as of Oct 19, with canola at 96%.

Wheat futures remain under pressure from weak U.S. export demand and larger corn inventories, though strong Canadian exports and Black Sea disruptions support the physical market.

Prairie talk stayed thin.

Moderate confidence.

Continuity off October 26 (54 / 48 / 46 / 36 / 46).

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Not a good week for the bulls.

Wheat eases to 54 as boards stay soft toward July levels with a reduced Black Sea premium.

Canola eases to 46 on Prairie harvest wrap-up pressure.

Durum holds 48.

Corn holds 36.

Soybeans ease to 46 on harvest pressure outweighing China sales.

Main drivers:

Saskatchewan harvest reached 97% as of Oct 19, with canola at 96%.

December corn touched its lowest close in over two months on harvest pressure.

Prairie talk stayed thin over the weekend.

Moderate confidence.

Continuity off October 23 (55 / 48 / 48 / 36 / 47).

Main drivers:

Harvest wrap pressure and soft boards;.

Moderate confidence on thin weekend volume.

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Wheat eases to 55 as boards stay soft toward July levels with a reduced Black Sea premium.

Canola eases to 48 on Prairie harvest wrap-up pressure.

Durum holds 48.

Corn holds 36.

Soybeans lift to 47 on Chinese demand.

Main drivers:

Saskatchewan harvest is 97% done as of Oct 19, with canola at 96%.

Beans were the only grain that wanted to go up, with China booking 2.18 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in a single week.

Moderate confidence.

Prairie talk stayed thin.

Continuity off October 22 (56 / 48 / 49 / 36 / 46).

Grain Report Chart of the Day

Corn

Weekly Nearby

Testing the green 50-week moving average.

But made a new 3-month low.

But testing the 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement.

But below the declining purple 200-week.

But the 50-week is still rising.

But...

But...

But...

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Canola eases to 47 as Nov breaks lower under harvest pressure and soft oils.

Wheat slips to 58 on Black Sea peace talk reducing the war premium and HRS under moving averages.

Durum holds 48.

Corn holds Bearish 36. Pop....Corn

Soybeans 47.

Main drivers:

ICE Nov canola continuing slide near C$776 amid

Manitoba harvest at 92% and weaker vegetable oils.

Chicago wheat under pressure as Russia joins Black Sea peace talks.

HRS futures fall below key averages.

Thin Prairie volume.

Moderate confidence.

Main drivers:

Canola futures breaking lower on advancing harvest (MB 92%) and soft oils.

Wheat pressured by fading Black Sea war premium.

Thin volume keeps moves modest.

Moderate confidence.

Grain Report Chart of the Day

CBOT SRW Wheat

Daily Nearby

Testing the 200- Day Moving Average

Several reasons point to a rally.

This is one of them.

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Canola eases to 50 as November closes at C$781 with no turnaround.

Wheat eases to 60 on softer boards and harvest pressure.

Durum holds 48.

Corn holds 36.

Soybeans ease to 48.

Main drivers:

November canola settles at 781, down 6, lowest in nearly two months on harvest pressure and soft oils.

Prairie harvest continues to wrap up, with quality issues lingering on some wheat and canola.

Corn remains pinned by the WASDE yield shock as US harvest advances.

Moderate confidence

Prairie talk stayed thin.

Main drivers:

Continued harvest pressure and softer canola/wheat boards with no major narrative shift.

Thin Prairie volume.

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Canola eases to 52 as November slips under C$790 on softer oils, firmer CAD, and advancing Prairie harvest.

Durum ticks to 48 on strong export pace and Black Sea strikes.

Wheat eases to 61.

Corn holds 36.

Soybeans hold 49.

Main drivers:

Canadian durum exports reached 0.94 Mt through Oct 11, up 68% year-over-year, with weekend Russia-Ukraine strikes reducing the odds of a Black Sea deal.

Prairie harvest is wrapping up (SK 93%, AB ~88%, MB 79%), though quality issues from the wet September linger on some wheat and canola.

November canola is under pressure from comparable oils and farmer selling, with quality concerns limiting the slide.

Moderate confidence

Prairie talk stayed thin.

Note:

Main drivers are the durum export strength + residual Black Sea risk versus broad harvest pressure and soft canola board

Moderate confidence on thin volume.

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Canola ticks to 56 as Prairie harvest lags and crush runs strong.

Wheat holds 63 on residual lag.

Durum 46.

Corn holds 36 after the WASDE.

Soybeans ease to 50 on harvest pressure.

Main drivers:

Canadian canola harvest only 56–72% done in Alberta and Saskatchewan, well behind average, with north Alberta freeze risk.

November canola softer near C$807 on weaker oils and harvest, but quality concerns limit the slide.

Corn still pinned by the 181.2 yield shock.

Prairie talk stayed thin.

Continuity off October 14 (63 / 46 / 55 / 36 / 51).

Canola lag and crush support the tick higher

Soybeans ease on board weakness and harvest.

Grain Report Chart of the Day

Soybeans

Nearby Daily

Softening away from $13.

Closed at $12.77; overnight in the low 12.70s.

Looking for support from the 50-day moving average.

Why?

Because the 50-day has eyes on it.

That is it.

@Barchart @BarchartAg #cmdtyView $SOYB

Grain Report Chart of the Day

ICE Canola

November Daily Nearby

Rangebound.

Again.

Stay complacent

Or not.

The market and I don't care.

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Soybeans tick to 51 on the China bid.

Canola holds 55, range-bound.

Wheat holds 63 on residual Prairie lag.

Durum 46.

Corn holds 36 after the WASDE.

Main drivers:

USDA confirmed 470 kt U.S. soybeans to China for 2026/27.

November canola stayed rangebound near 813–817 on mixed oils and harvest pressure.

Saskatchewan was still behind the five-year average as of Oct. 9.

Moderate confidence

Prairie talk stayed thin.

Continuity off October 13 (63 / 46 / 55 / 36 / 49).

Note:

Soy’s lift is the China purchase + overnight bid;

Canola range-bound with CAD support offset by harvest/oils.

Corn still pinned by the 181.2 yield shock.

Moderate confidence on light volume.

Grain & Oilseed Social Sentiment

Canola ticks to 55 after the post-holiday board bounce.

Wheat holds 63 on residual Prairie harvest lag.

Durum 46. Need more posts, dang it

Corn holds 36 after the WASDE yield shock. Oh, Oh

Soybeans 49.

Main drivers:

November canola rose to 823.50 and cleared its 20-day moving average on soyoil and soy spillover.

Saskatchewan was still well behind the five-year average as of Oct. 9.

Durum posts stayed quiet.

Moderate confidence

Prairie talk was thin after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Continuity off October 12 (63 / 46 / 54 / 36 / 49).

Main drivers note:

Canola’s modest lift is board-driven, not a fresh Prairie narrative.

Corn remains pinned by the October WASDE.

Volume is still light.

Grain Report Chart of the Day

Dec Corn

Daily Nearby

Holding just above the 200-day MA

Low 4.78s tested today

Bounce or just a pause?

WASDE hangover still in the chart