Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
Russia issued permits for grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov on Oct 28, the first since July 10, according to Reuters.
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% the same day.
Manitoba's harvest reached 94%, and U.S. wheat export sales for the week ending Oct 22 were a 2026/27 marketing-year high.
Black Sea and wheat
Russian authorities issued permits for vessels carrying grain for export to leave the Sea of Azov for the first time since July 10, seven industry sources told Reuters, as published by The Moscow Times on Oct 28. Maritime traffic in the area was closed on July 10 because of Ukrainian drone attacks.
The sources said permits to pass through the Kerch Strait, which links the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, would be issued for a period through Nov 15. Two of them said the vessels would be escorted through the Black Sea by a Russian naval convoy.
The move coincided with the start of a localized ceasefire in the Kherson region. Reuters reported that both Russia and Ukraine said the ceasefire was holding.
Prairies and Canada
The Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%, according to its Oct 28 announcement.
The Bank said the Canadian dollar had weakened on U.S.-dollar strength but "has since recovered to around 71 cents", the same level assumed in its July report.
CPI inflation has been around 3% since April and is expected to rise to about 3½% by the end of the year. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% in September.
The Bank expects the Canadian economy to grow 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 and 2028. Its statement said: "There could be a need to increase the policy rate further, but given uncertainties, Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully." The next decision is Dec 9.
Manitoba's harvest was 94% complete as of Oct 27, according to Manitoba Agriculture's Seasonal Crop Report. By region, the Southwest was 92%, the Northwest 87%, Central and Eastern 96% each, and the Interlake 95%.
Spring wheat: 99% harvested.
Canola: 99%.
Soybeans: 95%.
Grain corn: 48%.
Flax: 65%, with swaths taking time to dry down.
The report considers the spring cereal harvest complete in all regions. It said quality was good in earlier-harvested crops, with downgrading due to sprouting and weathering in later-harvested fields.
U.S. export sales
U.S. wheat net sales were 849,800 tonnes for 2026/27 in the week of Oct 16 to 22, a marketing-year high, USDA FAS reported on Oct 29. The main buyers were the Philippines (226,300 tonnes), South Korea (154,000), Indonesia (140,000), Vietnam (100,700) and Mexico (93,300).
Wheat exports were 266,000 tonnes, up 11% from the previous week and down 3% from the prior four-week average.
Corn net sales were 1,303,900 tonnes, down 15% from the previous week and up 32% from the four-week average. Corn exports were 552,900 tonnes.
Soybean net sales were 2,576,400 tonnes, including 1,627,000 tonnes for China. Soybean exports were 2,384,100 tonnes, with 1,657,000 tonnes to China.
Barley net sales of 5,200 tonnes were all for Canada.
What to watch
Grain vessel movement out of the Sea of Azov while the Kerch Strait permits run through Nov 15.
The Canadian dollar after the rate increase, ahead of the next Bank of Canada decision on Dec 9.
Manitoba's grain corn and flax harvest.
Saskatchewan's final Crop Report of 2026 on Nov 5, according to the Government of Saskatchewan.
Weekly U.S. export sales for wheat, corn and soybeans.
Get the full Grain Report
Each Grain Report includes a video analysis, a text summary and charts.
Sources: Bank of Canada, Interest rate announcement, Oct 28, 2026 · Manitoba Agriculture, Seasonal Crop Report, Oct 27, 2026 · USDA FAS, U.S. Export Sales Weekly Highlights, Oct 16-22, 2026 (Oct 29, 2026) · Government of Saskatchewan, Crop Report · Reuters (via The Moscow Times), Oct 28, 2026
