A Prairie grain marketing guide
A grain marketing plan is a written rule for pricing crop you already grow. It names the class, the chart that belongs to that class, how much you will sell at each stage, and the level that tells you the read was wrong. It is not a forecast, and it is not a tip. The Klarenbach Grain Report is built on that distinction: focus on the price, not the noise, then size the sale so one call cannot hurt the farm.
Three prices get mixed up in the driveway conversation. Futures are the benchmark. Cash is the elevator bid. Basis is the cash bid minus the futures month the buyer is using. On canola, the benchmark is ICE canola, symbol RS, in Canadian dollars per tonne. On Canada Western Red Spring, the reference is Minneapolis hard red spring wheat. Canada Prairie Spring Red is usually read beside Kansas City. Durum has no liquid futures contract a Prairie farm can hedge, so the CWAD bid is the market. A Chicago quote is a different wheat.
What the plan has to decide
Before a chart is useful, the plan needs five answers. Which class is in the bin. How many tonnes are unsold. What cash the farm needs, and when. What price covers the bills you will not negotiate. What portion you can hold without losing sleep. Those answers do not come from the chart. The chart only tells you whether the path in front of you is a base, an advance, a stall or a decline.
Cash, futures and basis
Sell cash when you want the grain gone. The bid you accept is futures plus or minus basis, then grade, protein, dockage and the delivery slot. A strong futures screen with a wide basis can be a poor sale. A soft futures screen with a narrowing basis can be a good one. If you need the money and the futures trend is still up, one choice is to sell the physical grain and replace the price exposure with futures. That is a cash-flow decision. It is not a basis call, and it is not free of margin risk.
On 1 October 2026, PDQ averages showed how wide that gap can be. Saskatchewan 1 Canada canola ran from $742.41 in the northwest to $753.19 in the southwest, while the November screen that morning was quoted at $815.30. That screen figure was 10:06 a.m. ET, not the settlement. Your station will not match the average. The method for reading the gap is in Saskatchewan canola basis, explained.
When to sell
The useful question is which stage the chart is in, not what the news says the crop should be worth. Accumulation is a base after a decline. Markup is the advance, and the stage where holding unsold grain is easiest to justify. Distribution is the stall at the top, when the crowd is still bullish and early sales are being made. Decline is the break. Waiting for the old high in a decline is how a good year becomes a storage bill. The tools behind that read, including moving averages and Fibonacci, are in the technical analysis guide. Which chart to open for each wheat is in How to read a Prairie wheat chart.
Ladder the sale
One price for the whole bin is a bet. A ladder is a sequence. Price a portion when the chart first confirms the stage. Price another at the next target. Leave a portion only if you can name the level that cancels the idea. Write the tonnes next to each step before the market opens. A plan you invent after the bid is posted is not a plan.
The sleep point
If unsold grain is keeping you awake, that is information. Selling down to your sleep point means pricing enough that the remainder does not run the farm. It is not an instruction to empty the bins. It is a size rule. Anchoring to last year's high, to a neighbour's sale, or to a cost figure the market is not paying, is how that rule gets ignored.
A six-step marketing pass
Name the class and the tonnes still unsold.
Open the matching chart. ICE for canola, Minneapolis for CWRS, Kansas City beside CPSR, cash only for durum.
Call the stage. Base, advance, stall or decline. If the monthly and weekly charts disagree, sell smaller.
Write the cash bid beside the futures month the buyer is using. The difference is basis. Durum has no futures leg.
Ladder the sale. Portion, target, and the level that says the read was wrong.
Check the sleep point. If the unsold balance is too large for the farm, price more, even if the chart is not finished.
Standing cash tables sit on the canola hub, the spring wheat hub and the durum hub.
Frequently asked questions
What is a grain marketing plan?
A written set of rules for pricing the crop you already grow: which class, which chart, how much to sell at each stage, and the level that tells you the read was wrong. It is not a price forecast.
Should I sell cash or futures?
Sell cash when you want the grain gone and the bid is acceptable. Use futures only if you still want price exposure after the physical grain is sold, or to protect unsold grain you cannot move. They are different decisions, and futures carry margin.
What does sell down to your sleep point mean?
Price enough of the unsold crop that the rest does not keep you awake. It is not an order to sell everything. It is a size decision.
Why is my bid different from the futures screen?
The screen is a benchmark. Your bid is that benchmark plus or minus basis, then grade, protein and the delivery window. Durum has no liquid futures leg, so the cash bid is the whole price.
Nothing written here is investment advice or an instruction to buy, sell or trade. Do your own due diligence.
