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- Analyzing Corn Market Trends: July 2025 Update
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Trent Klarenbach provides an in-depth analysis of the Corn market as of July 2, 2025.
He discusses the current position of corn prices in relation to key moving averages, specifically noting that prices are below both the 200-day and declining 50-day moving averages.
Here are the key points regarding the corn market:
Daily Chart Analysis: Each candlestick on the daily chart represents one day. Corn is currently trading below both the 200-day (purple) and 50-day (green) moving averages, which typically suggests that any rallies should be viewed with caution.
Identified Support: As projected last week, corn found support at the $4.00 level. Additionally, the "golden zone" Fibonacci retracement level (between 61.8% and 65%) also provided support.
Current Rally: The market is experiencing a modest rally at the start of the new month. This suggests that a complete capitulation in corn prices may not be imminent.
Pricing Strategy: It is not advisable to rush and price corn at current levels. Consider preparing to offset physical sales with paper positions at a more opportune time.
Potential Rally Magnitude: The current rally could potentially extend by another 20 to 30 cents, presenting potential selling opportunities.
Fibonacci Retracement Significance: A Fibonacci retracement tool, applied from the August 2024 low to the February 2025 high, reveals that key Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 65%) have historically aligned with previous price highs, underscoring their predictive utility.
Downtrend Confirmation: The market remains in a confirmed downtrend. While a Head and Shoulders measured move target of $3.00 has been identified, price action is unlikely to be a straight decline.
Rally Targets (Daily Chart): The current rally is anticipated to reach approximately the $4.30 level, which aligns with previous resistance, support, and a Fibonacci level. A test of the 200-day moving average is also expected before the downtrend resumes, potentially pushing prices to $4.50.
Weekly Chart Projections: On the weekly chart, a move to $4.60 is plausible, potentially occurring in the fall or next winter. This level aligns with a Fibonacci level at $4.50 and another at $4.70.
200-Week Moving Average: The 200-week moving average (purple) is overhead and has not been retested since its decline began. Price could move sideways until it converges with the average, or it could rally to meet the average.
Downtrend Caveat: While being bullish in a downtrend is challenging, and rallies should be approached with caution, this particular rally may offer an opportunity to capture 20 to 40 cents in price improvement.
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Trent Klarenbach
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Nothing written, expressed, or implied here should be considered investment advice or an admonition to buy, sell, or trade any security or financial instrument. As always, do your own due diligence.
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