Durum Wheat Alert

By now, readers are aware that several of my sell signals triggered this week.

With these recent events, it is time to update my Durum Wheat Analysis.

Readers will remember my December 6 Durum Wheat Analysis where I identified my first sell signal:

The sell signal has not triggered as we are still in the $730/tonne level.

I will drill down to the Daily chart, preferring to analyze trend alignment across multiple times.

Basically, I want the short-term trend to move in the same direction as the longer-term trend increasing the probability of the price continuing in the direction of the prevailing trend.

When the trend is not aligned, we recognize the uncertainty of the market and exercise caution.

The short-term trend often but not always forecasts a change in the direction of the longer trend.

The following chart is the 1 CWAD Wheat SW SK Daily average price chart in bushels.

The above chart shows Friday’s closing price below the declining 50 Day Moving Average (DMA).

The 10 DMA is crossing beneath the 20 Day, indicating a downtrend on the shorter timeframes.

While a close below the 50 DMA often triggers a sell signal, I am allowing this a little more time to play out.

My first sell signal is a Daily close below the recent low of 19.60.

If this happens, a declining 10 DMA should be below a declining 20 DMA, which will be below a declining 50 DMA, adding conviction to a trend change thesis.

You can track my 1 CWAD Analysis on my website here.

The purpose of this newsletter is to provide advance notice of trend changes in addition to support and resistance levels, allowing the reader to anticipate future price action.

Think Wayne Gretzky, skating to where the puck is going.

That is our mission