Durum Wheat Analysis

Today we look at Durum Wheat - 1 CWAD - Saskatchewan Cash Price.

The chart below shows a parabolic move in the price beginning in the second half of 2021 when the Western Canadian drought impacted production.

I used my Fibonacci extension calculations to label my key levels of interest where I anticipate a short-term top in price.

Interestingly, the all-time high occurred at the 3.618 Fibonacci level, returning to the 2.618 level. This target level is logical for the price to settle down or reverse.

I shortened the timeframe in the chart below, providing additional space for annotations.

The Fibonacci retracement calculation using the 2018 low and the 2021 ATH provides the key levels labelled with red in the above chart.

These are the price levels where I anticipate a slow down or reversal in price.

The chart also appears to be forming an ABC reversal pattern.

When I calculate the ABC measured move, I arrive at a C target level of 558, below the 0.0382 Fibonacci level.

This confluence of targets suggests that the 562 level will be reached.

A lower low below 607 is a sell signal and would be a logical time to take full or partial profits.

If a new ATH is not made first, then 562 is my minimum price target.

A new ATH will invalidate my C target, and my bullish target of 910 kicks in.

BULLISH LEVELS OF INTEREST

(Take partial or full Profits)

1. 910

BEARISH LEVELS OF INTEREST

(Long entry or possible support level)

1. 607

2. 562

3. 495

4. 464

5. 428

I hope you enjoy this analysis, and I am interested in any feedback you can provide.