Our historic grain, oilseed and special crop analyses can be found with the following links:
The Trent Klarenbach Podcast on YouTube, YouTube Music, Spotify, Apple
We provide you with institutional-grade analysis and trade strategies.
The same strategies are used by grain companies and traders in Chicago, London, New York and Geneva.
The effectiveness of these strategies allows you to compete with the grain companies, top traders and hedge funds.
Many of our readers are unfamiliar with technical analysis, this market analysis style, and our terms.
Because the learning curve can be steep, we have created a video that explains the terms commonly used in our research.
We hope that this will increase the utility of our reports and help to Remove the Guesswork from grain marketing.
Technical analysis is a lot like reading tarot cards—or maybe tea leaves, depending on how much coffee you’ve had.
There’s a whole crowd out there that thinks this stuff is total BS, especially when you apply it to low-volume, niche markets like specialty crops.
They’re wrong, but whatever.
The reality is that markets are just a collection of human behaviours, and humans tend to repeat themselves whether they’re trading Apple stock or a bin of canola. Here is how we turn that "random" noise into a plan you can actually use.
The Compass: Finding Your Direction
When you’re staring at a chart that looks like a heart monitor during a marathon, you need a compass. That’s your Moving Average (MA).
Think of it as a tool that cuts through the daily "chatter" to show you the real underlying trend. We usually look at two versions:
Simple Moving Average (SMA): It treats every price in the window the same.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): This one is for the "what have you done for me lately" crowd. It reacts faster because it weights recent prices more heavily.
If the line is pointing up, you’re in an uptrend. If it’s sagging, well, you’ve got a downtrend. It’s about seeing the forest, not just the individual trees.
The Map: Identifying the Pit Stops
Once you know the direction, you need to know where the market might take a breather. This is where we use Fibonacci Retracements. It sounds like voodoo, but it works because everyone else is looking at the same math.
After a big move, prices usually pull back. We watch these specific "magic numbers" to see where the bounce happens:
23.6%: A shallow pit stop for a very strong trend.
38.2%: The most common spot for a "buy the dip" entry.
61.8% (The Golden Ratio): A deep test. If it bounces here, the trend is still alive and kicking.
The Warning Sign: Don't Get Faked Out
The most dangerous thing in the market has a bit of a grim name: the Dead Cat Bounce.
It’s a classic fake-out. A stock or commodity drops like a stone, sees a tiny reflexive rally, and lure's people in who think "the worst is over". Then, the floor drops out again. Learning to spot this three-part structure—the drop, the tiny bounce, and the failure—will save you a world of hurt.
The Bottom Line
None of these tools are a crystal ball. Technical analysis is an art, not a science, and we deal in probabilities, not certainties. But if you use the moving average as your compass and Fibonacci as your map, you stop guessing and start strategizing.
Whether you think we’re reading the stars or living in a simulation, the charts don’t lie about human behaviour.
Life’s Good
Check out our YouTube Channel:
I enjoy discussing the markets.
Reach out to me with any questions:
Trent Klarenbach
306-463-8607
Nothing written, expressed, or implied here should be considered investment advice or an admonition to buy, sell, or trade any security or financial instrument. As always, do your own due diligence.
