Rainfall and Predictive Canola Prices

Yesterday, I was asked with the following question:

That is a great question.

Here is my response.

I believe the price will do what it will do despite this rain or any rain.

As a result, I don't pay attention to rain events, etc.

I try to avoid the noise and focus on the price as Only Price Pays.

Below are images and comments to explain my position better.

The following comments were found in my April 22 Canola - Old and New Crop Ideas analysis:

I had identified the 670 level as possible resistance, anticipating a pullback.

When we look at the chart below, we see yesterday's high was 669.10, with a pullback today.

As anticipated.

Why?

The chart displays human behaviour and the average LONG position since July 18, 2023, has been losing money and got close to their break-even at 670.  They likely front-run the round number of 670 with sell orders at 665-669.

While no one knows with certainty where the price will go, it can be somewhat predictive.

Now, the 650 and 657 levels become important again as we see if they provide support.

This approach goes against the conventional wisdom status quo, but I find it more effective.

Does that make sense?

The chart below zooms in on the price action to provide great detail.

Notice how yesterday’s candle closed at 655, and today’s candle is battling the 650 level.

Price action is not certain but quite predictive.