Video: Bearish Oil Outlook Fibonacci Analysis

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$CL_F ( 0.0% )  

$OIL ( ▼ 0.07% )  

Video Summary

• Analysis Focus: This report analyzes crude oil futures using a weekly continuous chart, with a focus on Fibonacci retracement levels and the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP).

  • Fibonacci Retracement from April 2020 Low:

    • The Fibonacci retracement was applied from the April 2020 low (when oil prices turned negative) to the March 2022 high.

    • The price has consistently traded below the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels, indicating bearish momentum.

    • Current trading is below the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($65), at approximately $62.50.

    • A typical A-B-C pattern suggests a potential move to the 50% retracement level, which is projected at $45 on this chart (or $51 on alternative charts).

    • The 61.8% retracement level is identified at $25.

  • Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Analysis:

    • The VWAP from the April 2020 low (the average price paid per contract since then) has acted as both support and resistance.

    • The current price of oil is trading below this VWAP, which is considered a bearish indicator and supports the thesis of lower prices.

  • Bearish Outlook and Price Targets:

    • The overall sentiment is bearish, with a strong conviction that the price is heading towards $45.

    • Anticipate continued lower oil prices unless market conditions demonstrate otherwise.

  • Conclusion: The weekly chart for crude oil futures displays a bearish trend, supported by consistent trading below key Fibonacci retracement levels and the current price being below the long-term VWAP. The projected target is $45, with awareness of the deeper $25 Fibonacci level.

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