Our second annual Iowa Farmland Value Study 2025 is presented below.
In addition, a copy of the study is available to download.
Iowa Farmland Value
Study 2025
(Farmland Value Trends and Technical Price Analysis)
Prepared by: Trent Klarenbach, B.S.A., PAg
Klarenbach Research
April 1, 2026
1. Executive Summary
This report examines historical Iowa farmland values through an inflation-adjusted lens, combining technical analysis tools using a logarithmic scale, Relative Strength Index (RSI), moving averages, Fibonacci Retracement, support and resistance analysis and Elliott Wave Theory.
The analysis is based on the USDA NASS farm real estate values and ISU Land Value Survey (1941-2025), which converted nominal farmland values to 2015 dollars using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) historical CPI-U data.
Key findings include:
A steady, long-term upward trend in inflation-adjusted land values with cyclical corrections.
The analysis identifies distinct historical cycles, including a significant boom in the 1970s, followed by a severe seven-year correction (approximately 1979-1986).
Technical indicators (RSI and moving averages) highlight periods of potential market overextension and subsequent support from historical resistance levels.
Historical declines (e.g., 1922–1933, 1979–1986) and technical indicators, combined with a recent bearish divergence between price and RSI, suggest a potential near-term correction.
The price trading below the 2-year Exponential Moving Average suggests a possible trend reversal leading to further declines.
The findings suggest that technical signals offer nuanced insights into cyclical patterns and preceding catalysts, including interest rate hikes, shifts in commodity prices, and policy changes.
2. Introduction
Iowa’s farmland has long been a cornerstone of United States agriculture, reflecting both local and global economic trends.
This study aims to provide a robust, data-driven assessment of farmland values by adjusting historical prices for inflation and applying technical analysis techniques to identify market dynamics.
The objective is to assist policymakers, financial institutions, and stakeholders in making informed decisions.
Objectives:
Analyze long-term trends in Iowa farmland values using inflation-adjusted data.
Identify historical cycles, including peak-to-trough declines and recovery periods.
Apply technical analysis tools (logarithmic scale, RSI, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements/extensions, Elliott Wave Theory) to assess current market conditions.
Anticipate future price trend changes.
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