Black Sea Wheat, Prairie Deliveries and Argentina Corn: Oct 27, 2026

Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research

Wheat's Black Sea risk premium came out of the market on Oct 26, while Moscow said it sees no way to revive the grain deal.

Ukraine's wheat exports are well behind last year, and Russia's winter wheat planting lag narrowed in one week.

On the Prairies, September deliveries rose 10.8%, Alberta's harvest reached 94%, and the Bank of Canada announces its rate decision on Oct 28.

Bloomberg reported that wheat erased its Black Sea risk premium after a report that Moscow is considering proposals to secure grain shipments, as relayed by Andrey Sizov on Oct 26.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister was quoted in the same post: "We are reviewing proposals received from various countries... We see no possibility of reviving the 'grain deal' in any format."

Ukraine exported 6.22 Mt of grains and pulses from the start of the marketing year to Oct 26, including 3.5 Mt of wheat against 6.18 Mt a year earlier, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing State Customs Service data.

Dry Bulk Monitor puts the wheat total at 3.54 Mt, down 43%, and all grain exports down 32% year over year. Corn exports were 2.13 Mt against 1.72 Mt a year earlier.

In Russia, the winter wheat planting lag behind last year shrank from 1.1 million hectares to 0.3 million hectares in one week, according to the Sizov Report.

Producer deliveries of major grains rose 10.8% in September from a year earlier to 8.1 million tonnes, Statistics Canada reported on Oct 26. The Western Producer described the September total as a record.

Alberta's harvest of major crops advanced six points in the week to 94% complete as of Oct 20, according to the Alberta Crop Report. The report cites moisture in the crop and the field, and cooler temperatures, for the slower pace.

The Peace Region was 81% complete. Provincially, canola was 86.1% harvested, with remaining acres in the northern regions mostly swathed canola and later-maturing cereals.

The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision and Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday, Oct 28, at 9:45 a.m. ET (7:45 a.m. CST).

Quintin Stamler noted on Oct 26 that wheat basis has been improving, and that a rate move that pushes the Canadian dollar could show up in effective basis.

U.S. soybean inspections for export were 2,476,453 tonnes in the week ending Oct 22, up from 2,068,086 tonnes the week before and 1,161,105 tonnes a year earlier, USDA Market News reported. That is about 91 million bushels.

Corn inspections were 625,233 tonnes (about 24.6 million bushels) and wheat inspections were 183,824 tonnes (about 6.8 million bushels).

Marketing-year-to-date soybean inspections were 9,705,412 tonnes, against 6,815,919 tonnes a year earlier. Wheat was 7,418,676 tonnes, against 11,475,246 tonnes.

The USDA attaché in Buenos Aires forecast Argentina's 2026/27 corn crop at 62 million tonnes and corn exports at 43 million tonnes, in a USDA FAS report dated Oct 23. USDA's official forecast is 55 million tonnes, Reuters reported.

The same report puts Argentina's 2026/27 wheat crop at 23 million tonnes. It says corn planting was about 35% complete at the time of writing.

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Sources: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Major grain deliveries, September 2026 (Oct 26, 2026) · Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation / AFSC, Alberta Crop Report, Oct 20, 2026 · Bank of Canada, 2026 schedule · USDA AMS Market News, Grains Inspected and/or Weighed for Export, week ending Oct 22, 2026 · USDA FAS, Argentina Grain and Feed Update AR2026-0017, Oct 23, 2026 · Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food (State Customs Service data), Oct 26, 2026 · Sizov Report · Dry Bulk Monitor · The Western Producer · Reuters