Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
Canada's biofuel industry says Ottawa's proposed Clean Fuel Regulations changes would leave canola demand about where it is.
Russian wheat export prices fell again last week as shipments recovered, and the first U.S. winter wheat rating of the season came in at 44% good to excellent.
Canola held steady on Nov 2 while crude oil fell sharply, and Mexico bought 1.73 million tonnes of U.S. corn.
Canola and biofuel rules
January canola closed up less than C$1 at about C$788 per tonne on Nov 2 after trading in a wide range, the Manitoba Co-operator's ICE review reported. The report said losses in crude oil spilled into the Chicago soy complex, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, while end-user buying and a slowdown in farmer selling as harvest wraps up across the Prairies provided support.
Speculative funds cut their net long position in canola from 86,618 contracts to 49,785 contracts in the week ended Oct 27, the smallest in three and a half months, according to the CFTC's Commitments of Traders data cited in the same report.
December WTI crude oil fell 7.4% to US$96 a barrel on Nov 2 on hopes for U.S.-Iran talks, Brownfield's closing table shows. December soybean oil closed at a six-month low, Pro Farmer reported. Early on Nov 3, WTI was up 2.1%, taking back part of that drop after U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, according to Pro Farmer.
Environment and Climate Change Canada proposed amendments to the Clean Fuel Regulations on Oct 27, with publication in the Canada Gazette on Oct 30 and a 75-day consultation, according to the government's news release. The release names co-processing of feedstocks such as canola oil at refineries as one goal.
The proposal sets credit multipliers for Canadian production of 1.3 times for ethanol, 1.4 times for biodiesel and 1.5 times for renewable diesel, Reuters reported on Nov 2.
Canadian Oilseed Processors Association executive director Mark Walker said the changes would result in "net-neutral" demand for canola.
Canola Council of Canada president Chris Davison said he supports incentives for feedstock from Canada, the U.S. and Mexico rather than Canada-only origin.
Federated Co-operatives' planned renewable diesel plant in Saskatchewan remains on hold, the report said.
Wheat and the Black Sea
Russian 12.5% protein wheat shipped from Baltic ports was US$260 per tonne FOB for December delivery at the end of last week, down US$4, according to IKAR, while SovEcon put it at US$261, down US$9, Reuters reported on Nov 2.
Rusagrotrans estimates Russia exported 10.3 million tonnes of wheat from July to October, with Baltic ports handling up to 65%. IKAR raised its October export estimate to more than 3 million tonnes and expects November to exceed 3 million tonnes. SovEcon raised its October estimate to 2.9 million tonnes.
A Reuters report noted that attacks on ships near Romania and Bulgaria show the maritime war between Russia and Ukraine expanding in the Black Sea, Pro Farmer said on Nov 3.
December Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures each closed up less than 1% on Nov 2 on short covering, according to Pro Farmer.
U.S. winter wheat was 83% planted as of Nov 1, against a five-year average of 84%, and 65% emerged, USDA NASS reported. In the first rating of the crop, 44% was good to excellent. Kansas was 47% good to excellent and 20% poor to very poor, DTN reported.
U.S. wheat inspected for export was 75,413 tonnes in the week ending Oct 29, down from 195,054 tonnes the week before, USDA Market News reported. Marketing-year inspections were 7.53 million tonnes, against 11.83 million a year earlier.
Corn, soybeans and the U.S. harvest
Private exporters sold 1,729,740 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico, with 1,135,380 tonnes for 2026/27 and 594,360 tonnes for 2027/28, along with 136,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, USDA FAS announced on Nov 2.
U.S. corn harvest reached 74% as of Nov 1, against a five-year average of 77%, and soybean harvest reached 88%, against 84%, according to USDA NASS. Iowa corn was 66% harvested, against a 79% average.
Corn inspected for export was 884,766 tonnes in the week ending Oct 29, up from 638,226 tonnes, and soybeans were 2,444,828 tonnes, against 992,656 tonnes a year earlier, USDA Market News reported. Marketing-year soybean inspections were 12.18 million tonnes, against 7.81 million.
December corn touched a four-month low before closing slightly higher on Nov 2, and January soybeans fell to a two-and-a-half-month low, Pro Farmer reported.
In South America, Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier left his estimates unchanged at 182 million tonnes for Brazil's soybean crop, 53% planted, and 60 million tonnes for Argentina's corn crop, 47% planted, Pro Farmer reported.
What to watch
U.S. midterm election results tonight and what they mean for the farm bill, as Pro Farmer noted.
Crude oil and vegetable oils as U.S.-Iran talks and strikes continue.
The Grain Commission's week 13 data for the week ending Nov 1, on its Grain Statistics Weekly page.
Saskatchewan's final Crop Report of 2026 on Nov 5, according to the Government of Saskatchewan.
USDA's November WASDE report on Nov 10, according to USDA.
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Sources: Environment and Climate Change Canada, Proposed amendments to the Clean Fuel Regulations, news release (Oct 27, 2026) · ICE Futures and CFTC, Commitments of Traders, week ended Oct 27, 2026 (via Manitoba Co-operator), Nov 2, 2026 · USDA NASS, Crop Progress (Nov 2, 2026) · USDA AMS Market News, Grains Inspected and/or Weighed for Export, week ending Oct 29, 2026 · USDA FAS, Export Sales Announcement FAS-ESR-099-26 (Nov 2, 2026) · CBOT, KC, MGEX and NYMEX futures (via Pro Farmer and Brownfield), Nov 2, 2026 · IKAR, SovEcon and Rusagrotrans (via Reuters), Nov 2, 2026 · Reuters, Canada biofuel rules, Nov 2, 2026 · Pro Farmer, First Thing Today and Evening Report, Nov 2-3, 2026 · DTN, Nov 2, 2026 · Canadian Grain Commission, Grain Statistics Weekly · Government of Saskatchewan, Crop Report · USDA, WASDE schedule
