Readers will remember my October 31 Canola newsletter, where I provided an updated analysis of the Canola market.
The following is an excerpt:
I become Bullish JAN Canola above 882.
Until then, I remain Neutral.
The pink box represents the range of my levels of interest, where I anticipate the price to slow down and perhaps make a local top.
The JAN contract has the greatest volume and is considered the Nearby contract.
The Nearby chart below displays the price approaching the following my pink level of interest ranging between 912 and 935.50.
At press time, the daily high was 911.90, supporting my Round Number Theory.
I have shared this theory with several of you.
Today’s price has fallen short of filling the June 30 Gap at 913…. so far.
Gaps tend to get filled.
The NW SK price chart below displays the price above the short-term moving averages, telling me to stay LONG in the short term.
The Anchored Volume-Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) is not shown on the charts.
The price is also testing the AVWAP prices from the April 2022 high.
The AVWAP on the Daily chart is approximately 904, while the Weekly is 915.
When the price is below the AVWAP, the average purchased contract in that period is losing money.
The average purchased contract is profitable above the AVWAP.
These AVWAPs often act as support and resistance levels.
The AVWAP creates an exit opportunity for holders of losing positions, putting downward pressure on price.
I will be watching this price level closely.
My updated Sentiment Rating and Strategy Signals are below.
SUMMARY
Short-Term Bullish
Price is testing my level of interest range.
The price is testing the AVWAP from the April high ranging from 904-915, which could bring in Sellers.
No Take-Proft Target Price
No Bearish Sell Signals.
