Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
January canola closed at a three-month low on Nov 3 as Chicago soybeans, European rapeseed and palm oil fell.
Russia, Ukraine and the United States will hold peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10-11, and IKAR lowered its Russian wheat export forecast to 39.5 million tonnes.
Democrats won control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress, while December corn closed at a four-month low.
Canola and China tariffs
January canola fell C$6.60 to C$781.80 per tonne on Nov 3, a fresh three-month low, after trading between C$775.00 and C$790.80, Glacier FarmMedia's ICE review reported. About 58,620 contracts traded. The report said chart-based selling was a feature, with losses in Chicago soybeans, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil weighing on values, while harvest wrapping up across most of Western Canada limited farmer selling.
November 2027 canola fell C$7.80 to C$773.80, and uncertainty over China's tariff arrangement as it approaches its year-end expiry was cited as a factor, Syngenta's ICE close reported.
China's suspension of its 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal and peas runs from Mar 1 to Dec 31, 2026, while canola seed carries a combined 15% duty, according to an Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada briefing note. Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan president Bill Prybylski said after meeting Chinese Embassy officials that he heard "positive messaging," CBC reported on Oct 30.
Malaysian palm oil futures traded near MYR 4,500 per tonne early on Nov 4, a more-than-one-month low, and Nymex WTI crude was down 1% at US$95.15 a barrel, Pro Farmer reported.
Wheat and the Black Sea
Russia will hold three-way peace talks with Ukraine and the United States in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10-11, the Kremlin confirmed, Pro Farmer reported, citing Reuters. Paris December milling wheat fell 1.3% to €225.25 per tonne on Nov 3, Grain Central's market wire reported.
IKAR lowered its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast to 39.5 million tonnes, Reuters reported on Nov 3. Chicago wheat is down about 25% from early September, and Rabobank's Vitor Pistoia pointed to large harvests in Australia, Argentina and the U.S., Reuters reported.
December Chicago wheat closed at US$5.99¾ a bushel on Nov 3, Kansas City at US$6.36¼, a four-month low, and Minneapolis spring wheat at US$6.19½, according to Pro Farmer.
Canadian non-durum wheat exports reached 6.01 million tonnes through CGC week 12, up 17% from a year earlier, and durum reached 1.20 million tonnes, up 49%, Sask Wheat's market outlook from Exceed Grain Marketing said. About 79% of CWRS harvest samples graded No. 1 or No. 2, with average protein near 13.8%, against 54% of durum samples in the top two grades.
ABARES forecasts Australia's wheat crop near 29.9 million tonnes, and Buenos Aires puts Argentina's at 23.4 million tonnes, the outlook said.
TurkStat's second estimate puts Turkey's wheat crop at 24.8 million tonnes, up 38%, which could reduce its import needs.
Tunisia bought 100,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat at US$296.91 to US$304.89 per tonne C&F for December-January shipment.
Corn, soybeans and the U.S. election
Democrats won control of both the U.S. House and Senate on Nov 3, with Senate wins in farm states including Iowa, Kansas and Texas, Pro Farmer reported. The report said Democrats are seen as likely to hold off on the farm bill during the lame-duck session.
December corn closed at US$4.42½ a bushel on Nov 3, a four-month low, with continued harvest hedge selling, and January soybeans closed at US$12.14, a two-and-a-half-month low, Pro Farmer reported. December soybean meal fell US$1.60 to US$318.00 per short ton.
StoneX estimated the U.S. corn yield at 183.1 bushels per acre, above USDA's 181.2, and soybeans at 55.0 bushels, against USDA's 53.1, according to Pro Farmer.
Private exporters sold 315,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico, 136,000 tonnes of corn to South Korea and 134,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations, all for 2026/27, USDA FAS announced on Nov 3.
In Brazil, more rain is needed in western and northern areas, while frequent rain into Saturday will stall wheat harvest from Rio Grande do Sul into Parana, World Weather's Andy Karst said, Pro Farmer reported. Michael Cordonnier left Brazil's soybean crop at 182 million tonnes and Argentina's corn at 60 million tonnes, according to Pro Farmer.
What to watch
The Grain Commission's week 13 data for the week ending Nov 1, on its Grain Statistics Weekly page.
Saskatchewan's final Crop Report of 2026 on Nov 5, according to the Government of Saskatchewan.
Russia-Ukraine-U.S. peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10-11.
USDA's November WASDE report on Nov 10, according to USDA.
The Canada-China tariff arrangement as the Dec 31 expiry nears.
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Sources: ICE Futures canola (via Glacier FarmMedia and Syngenta), Nov 3, 2026 · Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Question Period note AAFC-2026-QP-00016 · CBC News, Oct 30, 2026 · CBOT, KC and MGEX futures (via Pro Farmer), Nov 3, 2026 · Pro Farmer, First Thing Today, After the Bell and Market Snapshot, Nov 3-4, 2026 · Euronext (via Grain Central), Nov 4, 2026 · IKAR (via Reuters), Nov 3, 2026 · Reuters, Rabobank wheat outlook, Nov 3, 2026 · Exceed Grain Marketing, Sask Wheat Market Outlook (Nov 2, 2026) · USDA FAS, Export Sales Announcement (Nov 3, 2026) · StoneX (via Pro Farmer), Nov 3, 2026 · Canadian Grain Commission, Grain Statistics Weekly · Government of Saskatchewan, Crop Report · USDA, WASDE schedule
