By Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
October 16, 2026
In short: A week after my first recap, prices have kept drifting lower.
Corn slipped just under the bottom of my $4.80–$5.00 zone, and spring wheat closed below my $6.90–$7.00 zone.
KC wheat is sitting just above my $6.95–$7.00 level.
Soybeans pulled back further, but still not as far as any of the levels I named.
Canola is below the 808 close from my Sept 28 note, holding just above C$800.
This post looks back at my September analysis against the Oct 15 settlements.
It is a review of what I wrote, not a new call.
Corn
What I wrote (Corn Futures & Feed Barley: Western Canada Market Trends, Sept 16): "Maintain long exposure on a full daily/weekly candle close above $5.40. Below $5.40, consider short positions targeting downside objectives at $5.20 and $5.00."
I also flagged "a probable pullback to test the $5.15–$5.20 range" and "a potential retest of breakout support levels down toward the $4.80–$5.00 range."
What price did: December corn settled at $5.34 1/4 on Sept 16.
It closed at $5.43 on Sept 21, its highest close since Sept 2, but that close above $5.40 didn't hold, and it didn't close above $5.40 again.
After the Sept 30 Grain Stocks report, December fell 21 1/4 cents to $5.00 3/4.
The Oct 9 WASDE took it down another 20 1/2 cents to $4.79 3/4. On Oct 15, December settled at $4.78, the lowest close since Aug 13 and the first close under the 200-day moving average since Aug 12.
Scorecard: The $5.40 pivot held as resistance. $5.20 and $5.00 were both hit, and price is now just under the bottom of my $4.80–$5.00 zone.
The one daily close above $5.40 was a false signal, which is why I wanted weekly confirmation.
One note: my chart used the nearby contract, and these settlements are for December.
Spring Wheat
What I wrote (Spring Wheat Strategy: Target Levels for Cash & Futures, Sept 16): I expected "a pullback from current nearby futures levels ($7.49) to test moving average support around $6.90–$7.00," and wrote that "a clear breakout above $7.60 is required to confirm a Stage 2 markup toward the next target at $8.76."
What price did: December spring wheat settled at $7.56 on Sept 16 and $7.46 1/4 on Sept 21.
I found no close above $7.60.
It settled at $6.95 1/4 on Oct 9 and $6.86 on Oct 15.
Scorecard: The breakout didn't happen, so $8.76 is off the table for now.
The pullback I expected reached my $6.90–$7.00 zone, and price has now closed below it.
HRW / KC Wheat
What I wrote (HRW & CPSR Wheat Market Trends: KC Futures & SK Cash Analysis, Sept 17): KC was around $7.95. "Before pressing into the $9.00+ zone, a short-term pullback is anticipated," to $7.60, then $7.40, then $6.95–$7.00.
I suggested taking "some risk off the table at current levels," with re-entry "on a breakout above $8.50 or on a corrective dip into the $6.50–$7.00 support zone."
What price did: December KC went from $7.99 1/2 on Sept 16 to $7.19 1/4 on Oct 9, and settled at $7.13 on Oct 15.
Scorecard: $7.60 and $7.40 both gave way, and price is now 13 cents above $6.95–$7.00.
Taking risk off near $7.95 was the right call.
KC never pressed toward $9.00.
Soybeans
What I wrote (Soybean Price Forecast: Key Support Target & Spread Trends, Sept 18): "NOV Soybeans look ready to pull back. First level of interest is 1167, then 1240. But ultimately, I see 1200 in the works."
What price did:
November soybeans closed at $13.19 3/4 on Sept 17, the session before that note. They closed at $13.28 on Sept 21, then $12.93 on Sept 30 after the stocks report.
On Oct 9 they hit a six-week low of $12.69 3/4 right after the WASDE, then recovered to close at $12.92. On Oct 15 they fell 14 1/4 cents to settle at $12.63.
Scorecard: The pullback call was right on direction: about 57 cents from the Sept 17 close to the Oct 15 close.
But none of my levels traded.
The Oct 15 close is 23 cents above 1240, and further above 1200 and 1167.
That's a partial hit.
Canola
What I wrote (Canola Market Analysis: Daily Bounce Before Drop?, Sept 28): Nearby futures closed at the 50-day moving average, the 808 level. "A short-term bounce is anticipated toward 825–830, but the broader outlook points toward lower prices ahead."
What price did: November canola settled at C$801.70/tonne on Oct 15, down C$10.00 and its lowest settlement since Aug. 27.
It closed below the 50-day moving average but held above C$800.
Scorecard: Direction was right: price is lower than the 808 close in my Sept 28 note.
Drivers
Sept 30 Grain Stocks: Corn came in at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% year over year and above every trade estimate. Wheat came in at 1.846 billion bushels, down 14% and about in line with estimates. Soybean stocks were 315 million bushels, down 3%.
Oct 9 WASDE: USDA raised the corn yield 2.7 bu/acre to 181.2 when the trade expected a cut, adding 234 million bushels to the crop. Soybeans came in at a record 53.1 bu/acre and 4.56 billion bushels, with 2026/27 ending stocks up 5 million bushels to 315 million. U.S. wheat carryover rose 23 million bushels to 740 million.
This week: Soybeans sold off on harvest pressure and a weaker September NOPA crush, despite more Chinese purchases. Weak MATIF wheat and the soybean break pulled U.S. wheat lower on Oct 15.
Canola: Losses in Chicago soybeans, weaker European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, and harvest pressure pushed November to a seven-week low on Oct 15. Saskatchewan canola was 89% harvested as of Oct 12, and Manitoba 86%.
What to watch
Corn: whether it gets back inside the $4.80–$5.00 zone I named in September.
Spring wheat: whether it reclaims $6.90–$7.00. KC: $6.95–$7.00 and the wider $6.50–$7.00 band.
Soybeans: whether the pullback carries on toward 1240.
Canola: whether C$800 holds, with 700 below and 845 above.
The SK Canola Price Index is now under the $17.00 trend line.
Weekly export sales, harvest pace and the November USDA Crop Production report.
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