Understanding Durum Market Cycles

This publication, using Durum wheat, is similar to today’s Special Crops newsletter.

We have the thesis that all markets, equities, bonds, forex, crypto, commodity futures, cash crops, etc., all follow a similar market structure or cycle.

The reason for this is each market has one common denominator, human emotions.

The Wall Street Cheat Sheet below provides a practical illustration of how human emotion changes through the market cycle.

I am confident that each reader can relate to these feelings affecting decision-making.

Our application of Technical Analysis attempts to remove emotion from our decision-making.

For example, if an uptrend changes, we want to begin exiting or entering positions almost mechanically, regardless of our beliefs or attachment to our position.

Take a look at the infographic below and how the emotions change with the price action.

Now take a look a the Amber Durum Average Saskatchewan Cash Price weekly chart example below.

Where is Durum in the market cycle?

Are we still in an uptrend, and feeling Belief or Euphoria?

Some market participants are Complacent, while others are feeling Denial and Anxiety.

How are you feeling right now?