Six pieces this week — a structural call on the whole ag complex, a five-market pullback warning, canola cash-flow strategy, durum finding its footing, a fertilizer signal, and a change of pace with a podcast on blockchain in the grain trade.

A well-known caller reached out asking why canola and wheat are rallying against seasonal norms.

Trent's answer: forget the "why" and watch the four-stage market cycle instead — accumulation, markup, distribution, decline.

His corn + soybeans + wheat index shows the complex entered Stage 2 markup back in February, the same setup he flagged in September 2021.

Expect pullbacks along the way, but the structural read stays bullish for ag.

Trent turns bullish long-term, but flags a near-term pullback across the board: KC HRW, corn, CBOT SRW, soybeans, and canola are all sitting at resistance, overbought readings, or key Fibonacci levels at the same time. \

The strategy piece behind this week's canola resistance call: freeing up cash through strategic canola sales while using paper to replace physical exposure, alongside holding durum.

A full pass across Canadian, US, and European durum. Saskatchewan's Klarenbach Price Index is holding near $7.50, Europe's SITAGRI index shows a similar flattening-moving-average setup, and US cash durum has rebounded off lows even as it lags a rallying HRSW futures market.

Urea FOB Gulf futures are approaching July's highs

A change of pace.

Trent's podcast conversation with Jason Dearborn on GRNX Global and the GrainX token, a blockchain-based system for agricultural data governed exclusively by farmers.

They cover a completed blockchain-cleared feed barley shipment to Japan, a first agricultural carbon credit payment to a producer, and proposed reforms to Saskatchewan's land titling system aimed at protecting farmer data and property rights.

That's the week. See you in the next one.