Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
Prairie grain prices drifted lower this week, with November canola settling at C$801.70/tonne on Oct 15, its lowest settlement since Aug. 27.
Spring wheat futures also slipped, as weak MATIF wheat and a break in soybeans pulled U.S. wheat lower on Oct 15.
Harvest pressure and last week's USDA reports showing larger U.S. corn and soybean supplies kept weighing on the grain complex.
Canola $RS_F ( 0.0% )
November canola settled at C$801.70/tonne on Oct 15, down C$10.00 on the day and at a seven-week low.
January canola closed near C$813/tonne.
Earlier in the move, futures had traded as high as about C$827/tonne.
Losses in Chicago soybeans, weaker European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, and harvest pressure all weighed on prices.
Saskatchewan canola was 89% harvested as of Oct 12, and Manitoba was 86% harvested.
Full analysis: Canola Futures & Saskatchewan Cash Price Forecast / Video.
Saskatchewan canola basis is sitting in the bottom quarter of its range since 2015.
Spring wheat $KW_F ( 0.0% )
December U.S. hard red spring wheat futures settled at $6.86/bu on Oct 15, down from $6.95 1/4 on Oct 9.
Nearby futures were trading at $6.76/bu on Oct 16, compared with $7.49 on Sept. 16.
Weak MATIF wheat and the drop in soybeans pulled U.S. wheat lower on Oct 15.
December KC hard red winter wheat settled at $7.13 on Oct 15, down from $7.19 1/4 on Oct 9.
USDA's Oct 9 report raised U.S. wheat carryover by 23 million bushels to 740 million.
The Klarenbach Saskatchewan CWRS Price was $8.46/bu this week, compared with $8.47 last week.
The Klarenbach Saskatchewan CPSR Price Index was $261.85/tonne this week, compared with $261.44 last week.
Full analysis: Hard Red Spring Wheat Outlook: Lower Targets & Key Levels.
The wider grain complex
December corn $CORN ( ▼ 0.87% ) $ZC_F ( 0.0% ) settled at $4.78 on Oct 15, its lowest close since Aug. 13.
USDA's Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report put U.S. corn stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% from a year ago and above every trade estimate.
USDA's Oct 9 report then raised its corn yield estimate when the trade expected a cut, adding 234 million bushels to the crop.
November soybeans $SOYB ( ▼ 0.22% ) $ZS_F ( 0.0% ) settled at $12.63 on Oct 15, down 14 1/4 cents on the day.
Harvest pressure and a weaker September NOPA crush weighed on soybeans, despite more Chinese purchases.
USDA pegged the U.S. soybean crop at a record 4.56 billion bushels.
How September calls compare with current prices: September Analysis Recap: Canola, Wheat, Corn & Soybeans vs. Oct 16 Prices.
What to watch next week
How quickly the rest of the Prairie canola harvest wraps up, after Saskatchewan reached 89% and Manitoba 86% as of Oct 12.
Chicago soybeans, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, which all weighed on canola this week.
MATIF wheat, which pulled U.S. wheat lower on Oct 15.
U.S. harvest pressure and the pace of Chinese soybean purchases.
This week's posts
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