By Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
October 9, 2026
In short: In September, I asked for confirmation before getting bullish on corn and wheat, and I expected pullbacks first.
Confirmation never came.
Corn failed at $5.40, spring wheat never cleared $7.60, and the pullbacks arrived after two bearish USDA reports.
Soybeans did pull back as I expected, but not as far as any of the levels I named.
This post looks back at my September analysis against today's prices.
It is a review of what I wrote, not a new call.
Corn
What I wrote (Corn Futures & Feed Barley: Western Canada Market Trends, Sept 16): "Maintain long exposure on a full daily/weekly candle close above $5.40. Below $5.40, consider short positions targeting downside objectives at $5.20 and $5.00."
I also flagged "a probable pullback to test the $5.15–$5.20 range" and "a potential retest of breakout support levels down toward the $4.80–$5.00 range."
What price did: December corn settled at $5.34 1/4 on Sept 16.
It closed at $5.43 on Sept 21, its highest close since Sept 2, but that close above $5.40 didn't hold, and it didn't close above $5.40 again.
After the Sept 30 Grain Stocks report, December fell 21 1/4 cents to $5.00 3/4.
Today's WASDE took it down another 20 1/2 cents to $4.79 3/4, the lowest close since Aug 13.
Scorecard: The $5.40 pivot held as resistance. $5.20 and $5.00 were both hit, and price is now at the bottom of my $4.80–$5.00 zone.
The one daily close above $5.40 was a false signal, which is why I wanted weekly confirmation.
One note: my chart used the nearby contract, and these settlements are for December.
Spring Wheat
What I wrote (Spring Wheat Strategy: Target Levels for Cash & Futures, Sept 16): I expected "a pullback from current nearby futures levels ($7.49) to test moving average support around $6.90–$7.00," and wrote that "a clear breakout above $7.60 is required to confirm a Stage 2 markup toward the next target at $8.76."
The Saskatchewan CWRS index was $8.59/bu: "Structurally bearish below $8.70… bullish on a confirmed close above it."
What price did: December spring wheat settled at $7.56 on Sept 16 and $7.46 1/4 on Sept 21.
I found no close above $7.60.
Today it settled at $6.95 1/4.
Scorecard: The breakout didn't happen, so $8.76 is off the table for now.
The pullback I expected has landed inside my $6.90–$7.00 zone.
My Klarenbach SK CWRS Price found a low of $8.30 before closing this week at $8.47.
HRW / KC Wheat
What I wrote (HRW & CPSR Wheat Market Trends: KC Futures & SK Cash Analysis, Sept 17): KC was around $7.95. "Before pressing into the $9.00+ zone, a short-term pullback is anticipated," to $7.60, then $7.40, then $6.95–$7.00.
I suggested taking "some risk off the table at current levels," with re-entry "on a breakout above $8.50 or on a corrective dip into the $6.50–$7.00 support zone."
For CPSR, "a sustained move above $300/tonne" was needed to open $330.
What price did: December KC went from $7.99 1/2 on Sept 16 to $7.36 1/4 on Oct 8, and settled at $7.19 1/4 today, a two-month low.
Scorecard: $7.60 and $7.40 both gave way, and price is now nearing $6.95–$7.00.
Taking risk off near $7.95 was the right call.
KC never pressed toward $9.00.
The Klarenbach SK CPSR Price Index found a high of $281.21 and closed this week at $261.44.
Soybeans
What I wrote (Soybean Price Forecast: Key Support Target & Spread Trends, Sept 18): "NOV Soybeans look ready to pull back. First level of interest is 1167, then 1240. But ultimately, I see 1200 in the works."
What price did:
November soybeans closed at $13.19 3/4 on Sept 17, the session before that note. They closed at $13.28 on Sept 21, then $12.93 on Sept 30 after the stocks report.
Today they hit a six-week low of $12.69 3/4 right after the WASDE, then recovered to close up 4 1/2 cents at $12.92.
Scorecard: The pullback call was right on direction: about 27 cents close to close, and roughly 50 cents to today's intraday low.
But none of my levels traded.
Today's low stayed above 1240, 1200 and 1167.
That's a partial hit.
Drivers
Sept 30 Grain Stocks: Corn came in at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% year over year and above every trade estimate. Wheat came in at 1.846 billion bushels, down 14% and about in line with estimates. Soybean stocks were 315 million bushels, down 3%.
Oct 9 WASDE: USDA raised the corn yield 2.7 bu/acre to 181.2 when the trade expected a cut, adding 234 million bushels to the crop. Soybeans came in at a record 53.1 bu/acre and 4.56 billion bushels, with 2026/27 ending stocks up 5 million bushels to 315 million and exports raised 10 million bushels on Chinese buying. U.S. wheat carryover rose 23 million bushels to 740 million.
Macro and trade: The U.S. dollar is near a 1.5-year high. Black Sea wheat is moving again, and HRW country got drought-breaking rains. Corn export inspections hit a five-week high in mid-September, while wheat exports have been mixed.
What to watch
Corn: how it trades in the $4.80–$5.00 zone I named in September.
Spring wheat: $6.90–$7.00. KC: $6.95–$7.00 and the wider $6.50–$7.00 band.
Soybeans: whether the pullback carries on toward the September levels or the WASDE-day recovery holds.
Harvest pace, CONAB's Brazil numbers on Oct 15, and the November USDA Crop Production report.
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