The Commitments of Traders report shows who holds open positions in a futures market, by trader type, as of a given Tuesday.
It does not show price direction or timing. It shows positioning: who is long, who is short, and how crowded the trade has become.
Used as a check on a chart read, it is useful. Used as a signal on its own, it fails often enough to be dangerous.
What the report is
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes the report weekly. Positions are as of Tuesday's close and are normally released the following Friday afternoon, Eastern time.
A holiday or a government shutdown can delay it. Coverage includes the CBOT grains and oilseeds, Minneapolis spring wheat and ICE canola, the markets Prairie marketers watch.
The two versions that matter
Legacy report. Splits positions into commercial and non-commercial traders, plus a small non-reportable group.
Disaggregated report. Splits positions into producer, merchant, processor and user; swap dealers; managed money; other reportables; and non-reportable.
For grain marketing, the disaggregated report is more useful. Managed money is the fund category most often quoted in market news. Producers, merchants, processors and users are the commercial hedgers: handlers, crushers and end users managing physical risk. They are a different kind of trader with different motives, which is why you should read them separately.
Four numbers to read
Net position. Longs minus shorts for one category. A managed money net short means funds hold more short than long contracts.
Weekly change. Whether the net position grew or shrank since last week. A shrinking net short is short covering. A growing net short is new selling.
Open interest. The total number of open contracts. Rising open interest alongside a price move suggests new money. Falling open interest suggests positions are being closed.
Position against its own history. A net position means more at an extreme of its own range than at the middle. An extreme can last for a long time.
What it is good for
The report is a crowding gauge. Heavy fund net shorts can fuel a sharp short-covering rally if price turns up. A heavy fund net long can leave a market exposed to liquidation if price turns down. Neither outcome is guaranteed, and neither says when. The report adds weight to a chart read that price has already confirmed. It does not replace one.
What it cannot do
It is stale on release. The data is as of Tuesday and arrives on Friday. The market has moved by then.
Categories are by business purpose. Traders are classified by what they mainly do. A participant can hold both physical and speculative risk, so the labels are an approximation.
It counts contracts, not forecasts. A fund can be net short and still be right.
It says nothing about your cash bid. Basis, freight and buyer demand sit between the screen and the elevator.
A weekly routine
After the Friday release, note the managed money net position for the markets you price: canola, spring wheat, soybeans.
Record the change from last week and where the position sits against the past year.
Open the price chart for the same market. Has price confirmed the positioning, or is it fighting it?
If positioning and chart agree, treat it as support for the plan you already have. If they disagree, trust price and note it.
Act only through your marketing plan: how much is priced, at what level, and what tells you the read was wrong. The framework is in the Prairie grain marketing guide, and the chart method is in the technical analysis guide.
For how a cash bid relates to the futures screen, see Saskatchewan canola basis, explained.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Commitments of Traders report released?
The CFTC publishes it weekly. Positions are as of Tuesday's close and are normally released the following Friday afternoon, Eastern time. A holiday or a government shutdown can delay the release.
Does the COT report cover canola?
Yes. The CFTC report includes ICE Futures canola, alongside CBOT grains and Minneapolis spring wheat. The report lists fund positions in canola under the managed money category.
Is the COT report a buy or sell signal?
No. It shows positioning as of a Tuesday, released days later. It can show when a market is crowded on one side, but it does not time a turn. Use it as a check on a price chart read, not as a signal on its own.
Editorial analysis for information only. This is not individualized marketing, trading or financial advice. Futures trading carries risk of loss.
