Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
Canada and China agreed on Nov 4 to extend favourable market access for Canadian canola meal and peas through the end of 2028 (Global Affairs Canada).
January canola fell to a four-month low near C$753/tonne on Nov 5, then traded around C$748 at publication of Trent's Nov 6 chart note, even as the China meal-and-peas relief was extended (ICE via Syngenta Canada).
Saskatchewan's final Crop Report of 2026 put provincial harvest at 99% complete and canola yield at 38.3 bushels per acre (Government of Saskatchewan), while Alberta's harvest of major crops reached 97% as of Oct 27 (Alberta Crop Report).
U.S. wheat net sales for the week ended Oct 29 totaled 538,000 tonnes for 2026/27 (USDA FAS), and Russia, Ukraine and the United States remain scheduled for peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10–11.
Canola $RS_F ( 0.0% )
January canola gained to about C$788/tonne on Oct 30–Nov 2, then fell C$6.60 to C$781.80 on Nov 3 (a three-month low), C$13.50 to C$768.30 on Nov 4, and C$15.10 to C$753.20 on Nov 5, which Glacier FarmMedia called the lowest level in four months (Glacier FarmMedia ICE review).
The Nov 5 review said the January contract moved below its 200-day moving average around C$766/tonne. Speculative funds had already cut their net long from 86,618 contracts to 49,852 in the week ended Oct 27, the smallest in three and a half months (CFTC via Manitoba Co-operator).
Environment and Climate Change Canada proposed Clean Fuel Regulations amendments on Oct 27; Canadian Oilseed Processors Association executive director Mark Walker said the changes would leave canola demand about “net-neutral” (Reuters).
On Nov 4, Canada and China extended the Preliminary Joint Arrangement for canola meal and peas through the end of 2028. Canola seed tariffs cut to about 15% for five years in the January deal were not part of this two-year extension (CBC). Pulse Canada said more than 975,000 tonnes of peas shipped to China between March and September after the March 1 pause (Pulse Canada).
Central Alberta delivered canola was C$734.63/tonne on Oct 30 (Alberta Weekly Crop Market Review). Saskatchewan canola was 99% harvested with a provincial yield estimate of 38.3 bu/ac versus Statistics Canada's 41.9, with StatCan scheduled to update survey-based estimates in early December (Saskatchewan Crop Report).
Full analysis: Canola Market Analysis: Jan Futures at $748. Week's canola context: China Deal, Soft Canola and Argentine Wheat: Nov 5, 2026 · Saskatchewan Yields, Soft Canola and Wheat Sales: Nov 6, 2026.
Spring wheat (CWRS)
December Minneapolis hard red spring wheat closed the prior week at US$6.2375/bu, then traded US$6.19½ on Nov 3, US$6.16¾ on Nov 4 and US$6.20 on Nov 5 (Pro Farmer).
Canadian non-durum wheat exports reached 6.01 million tonnes through CGC week 12, up 17% from a year earlier, and about 79% of CWRS harvest samples graded No. 1 or No. 2 with average protein near 13.8% (Exceed Grain Marketing via Sask Wheat).
Saskatchewan hard red spring wheat yield was estimated at 51.9 bu/ac in the final Crop Report. Alberta spring wheat was 99.3% combined as of Oct 27 (Alberta Crop Report).
Read more: Alberta Harvest, Black Sea Wheat and EU Crop Cuts: Nov 2, 2026 · Saskatchewan Yields, Soft Canola and Wheat Sales: Nov 6, 2026.
Chicago and Kansas City wheat (CPSR)
December Chicago soft red winter wheat closed the week of Oct 30 at US$6.035/bu, then US$5.99¾ on Nov 3, US$5.98½ on Nov 4 (four-month lows early in that session) and US$5.99¼ on Nov 5. December Kansas City hard red winter was US$6.4425 on Oct 30 week-end, then US$6.36¼ on Nov 3 (a four-month low), US$6.32¾ on Nov 4 and US$6.35¾ on Nov 5 (Pro Farmer).
Central Alberta CPS wheat elevator bids fell to C$240.35/tonne on Oct 30 from C$254.51 a week earlier (Alberta Weekly Crop Market Review).
Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB Baltic was about US$260–261/tonne for December at the end of the prior week, and IKAR later lowered its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast to 39.5 million tonnes (IKAR via Reuters). Kerch Strait permits for Azov grain vessels run through Nov 15. The European Commission cut its 2026/27 EU soft wheat estimate to 123.7 million tonnes from 124.2 million on Oct 30 (European Commission via Reuters).
U.S. winter wheat was 83% planted as of Nov 1 with a first good-to-excellent rating of 44% (USDA NASS). Argentina's wheat harvest covered 6.7% of the suitable area early in the week (Bolsa de Cereales via ArgenFields).
U.S. wheat net sales for the week ended Oct 29 were 538,000 tonnes for 2026/27 (USDA FAS).
Read more: Canola Lows, Black Sea Talks and U.S. Midterms: Nov 4, 2026 · Canola Biofuel Rules, Russian Wheat and U.S. Harvest: Nov 3, 2026.
Durum
Southern Alberta durum elevator bids were C$321.43/tonne on Oct 30, up from C$316.81 a week earlier (Alberta Weekly Crop Market Review).
Canadian durum exports reached 1.20 million tonnes through CGC week 12, up 49% from a year earlier, while about 54% of durum harvest samples were in the top two grades (Exceed Grain Marketing via Sask Wheat).
Saskatchewan durum yield was estimated at 44.2 bu/ac, with 25% grading 1 Canada Western versus a 39% 10-year average (Saskatchewan Crop Report).
Barley and oats
Alberta barley was 99.3% combined and oats 96.0% as of Oct 27. Central Alberta feed barley bids were C$240.40/tonne on Oct 30, down from C$254.70 a week earlier (Alberta Weekly Crop Market Review).
Saskatchewan barley yield was estimated at 71.2 bu/ac with 16% malt versus a 31% 10-year average, and oats at 96.7 bu/ac. December oats closed the week of Oct 30 at US$3.4375/bu, down US$0.2825 on the week (Saskatchewan Crop Report; Alberta Weekly Crop Market Review).
The European Commission raised its 2026/27 EU barley estimate to 53.6 million tonnes from 52.9 million (European Commission via Reuters).
Corn and soybeans
December corn closed the week of Oct 30 at US$4.4775/bu, touched four-month lows early in the week, then closed at US$4.40 on Nov 5. January soybeans fell from multi-month highs toward US$11.88¼ on Nov 5 after US$12.14 on Nov 3 and US$12.02¼ on Nov 4 (Pro Farmer).
Private exporters reported large U.S. corn sales to Mexico early in the week (including 1.73 million tonnes announced Nov 2), plus further corn and soybean sales later in the week. For the week ended Oct 29, corn net sales were 1.295 million tonnes and soybean net sales 1.456 million tonnes (USDA FAS).
U.S. corn harvest was 74% as of Nov 1 (five-year average 77%) and soybeans 88% (average 84%) (USDA NASS). Cordonnier left Brazil soybeans at 182 million tonnes and Argentina corn at 60 million tonnes mid-week (Pro Farmer). StoneX estimated U.S. corn yield at 183.1 bu/ac and soybeans at 55.0, above USDA's October figures (StoneX via Pro Farmer).
Read more: Canola Biofuel Rules, Russian Wheat and U.S. Harvest: Nov 3, 2026 · Saskatchewan Yields, Soft Canola and Wheat Sales: Nov 6, 2026.
Urea fertilizer
Trent's Nov 6 urea update said that, with new information this week, the chart tells him to delay urea purchases as Urea FOB U.S. Gulf futures continue to find resistance at the 50-week moving average and the Fibonacci level.
Full analysis: Urea Fertilizer Trends: Western Canadian Market View.
What to watch next week
Russia–Ukraine–U.S. peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10–11.
USDA's November WASDE report on Nov 10 (USDA).
Detailed figures from the Canadian Grain Commission's week 13 Grain Statistics Weekly (week ending Nov 1) (CGC).
Grain vessel movement out of the Sea of Azov while Kerch Strait permits run through Nov 15.
Whether January canola finds a reaction near C$745 toward C$800, as Trent flagged Nov 6, before lower levels come back into view.
Crude oil and vegetable oils, and how they feed through to canola.
Statistics Canada's next survey-based crop estimates in early December.
This week's posts
Get the full Grain Report
Each Grain Report includes a video analysis, a text summary and charts.
Sources: Government of Alberta and AFSC, Alberta Crop Report, final report of 2026 (Oct 27, 2026) · Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation, Weekly Crop Market Review, Oct 30, 2026 · Government of Saskatchewan, Crop Report for Oct 20–26, 2026 (released Nov 5, 2026) · Global Affairs Canada, Nov 4, 2026 · Pulse Canada, Nov 4, 2026 · ICE Futures canola (via Glacier FarmMedia, Syngenta/DePutter, Manitoba Co-operator), Nov 2–6, 2026 · Environment and Climate Change Canada, Clean Fuel Regulations proposal · CFTC Commitments of Traders, week ended Oct 27, 2026 · USDA NASS Crop Progress, Nov 2, 2026 · USDA FAS Export Sales Commodity Summary, week ended Oct 29, 2026 · USDA FAS private export announcements, Nov 2–4, 2026 · CBOT, KC and MGEX futures (via Pro Farmer), Nov 2–5, 2026 · IKAR/SovEcon/Rusagrotrans (via Reuters) · European Commission (via Reuters), Oct 30, 2026 · Exceed Grain Marketing, Sask Wheat Market Outlook, Nov 2, 2026 · Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (via ArgenFields) · Canadian Grain Commission, Grain Statistics Weekly · USDA, WASDE schedule
