Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
Wheat's Black Sea risk premium came out of the market on Oct 26, then Russia issued the first permits since July 10 for grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov (Reuters, via The Moscow Times).
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Oct 28 (Bank of Canada).
January canola settled at C$783.10/tonne on Oct 29, its lowest levels in nearly three months (ICE close via Syngenta Canada), while U.S. wheat export sales hit a 2026/27 marketing-year high (USDA FAS).
Prairie deliveries stayed heavy: September deliveries of major grains rose 10.8% from a year earlier to 8.1 million tonnes (Statistics Canada).
Canola $RS_F ( 0.0% )
January canola futures settled C$2.60 lower at C$783.10/tonne on Oct 29, with weaker crude oil, a firmer Canadian dollar, fund selling and farmer selling cited (ICE via Syngenta Canada).
The Klarenbach Saskatchewan Canola Price Index was $16.24/bu on Oct 29.
Processors crushed 1.2 million tonnes of canola in September, up 21.9% from September 2025 (Statistics Canada).
Canola deliveries reached 5.43 million tonnes for the crop year to Oct 25, up 32.0%, and canola exports were 1.89 million tonnes, up 52.7% (Canadian Grain Commission, week 12).
September canola deliveries were up 43.5% from a year earlier at 2.8 million tonnes (Statistics Canada). Manitoba's canola was 99% harvested as of Oct 27 (Manitoba Agriculture), and Alberta's was 86.1% as of Oct 20 (Alberta Crop Report).
Full analysis: Canola Futures: Initial Target Reached.
Spring wheat (CWRS)
December MIAX hard red spring wheat futures were at $6.245/bu on Oct 30.
Wheat (excluding durum) deliveries reached 6.30 million tonnes to Oct 25, up 1.9% from a year ago, and wheat exports were 6.01 million tonnes, up 17.3% (Canadian Grain Commission).
Manitoba's spring wheat was 99% harvested as of Oct 27, with good quality in earlier crops and downgrading from sprouting and weathering in later-harvested fields (Manitoba Agriculture).
Quintin Stamler noted on Oct 26 that wheat basis has been improving, and that a rate move that pushes the Canadian dollar could show up in effective basis.
Full analysis: Wheat Futures Outlook: Chicago SRW, KC HRW & Spring Wheat Trends.
Chicago and Kansas City wheat (CPSR)
December Chicago soft red winter wheat settled at US$6.0375/bu on Oct 29 and December Kansas City hard red winter at US$6.4525/bu (CBOT via Farm Progress).
The move followed U.S. wheat net sales of 849,800 tonnes in the week of Oct 16–22, a marketing-year high (USDA FAS), and reports that China's state grain buyer asked about U.S. soft red winter wheat (Pro Farmer).
In the Black Sea, Ukraine's wheat exports were 3.5 million tonnes to Oct 26 against 6.18 million a year earlier (Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food), and Russia's winter wheat planting lag narrowed to 0.3 million hectares from 1.1 million in one week (Sizov Report).
Russia's Kerch Strait permits for Azov grain vessels run through Nov 15 (Reuters, via The Moscow Times).
Full analysis: Wheat Futures Outlook: Chicago SRW, KC HRW & Spring Wheat Trends.
Durum
Saskatchewan 1 CWAD 13.0 averaged $299–304/tonne (about $8.15–8.27/bu) on Oct 26, according to PDQ regional cash averages, and Bunge's Moose Jaw terminal closed amber durum at $318.34/tonne (about $8.66/bu), as reported by SaskToday.
Over October, the southwest firmed while the southeast slipped, narrowing the regional spread to under $5/tonne.
Durum deliveries were 994,800 tonnes to Oct 25, down 31.4%, while durum exports were 1.20 million tonnes, up 49.1% (Canadian Grain Commission).
Trent's Oct 30 wheat note said an anticipated Chicago rally could also support durum (Wheat Futures Outlook: Chicago SRW, KC HRW & Spring Wheat Trends).
Full outlook: Amber Durum Price Outlook: Saskatchewan CWAD, November 2026.
Barley and oats
Barley deliveries were 1.45 million tonnes to Oct 25, against 1.47 million a year ago, and barley exports were 887,400 tonnes, down 11.3% (Canadian Grain Commission).
September barley deliveries rose 2.2% to 869.9 thousand tonnes (Statistics Canada), and U.S. barley net sales of 5,200 tonnes in the week of Oct 16–22 were all for Canada (USDA FAS).
Oat deliveries were 489,300 tonnes to Oct 25, down 30.7% from 706,400 a year earlier (Canadian Grain Commission).
Corn and soybeans
Nearby soybean futures were hovering around $12.38/bu on Oct 30.
U.S. soybean net sales were 2,576,400 tonnes in the week of Oct 16–22, including 1,627,000 tonnes for China, and corn net sales were 1,303,900 tonnes (USDA FAS).
U.S. soybean export inspections were 2,476,453 tonnes in the week ending Oct 22, up from 1,161,105 a year earlier (USDA AMS).
The USDA attaché in Buenos Aires forecast Argentina's 2026/27 corn crop at 62 million tonnes, against USDA's official 55 million (USDA FAS).
Manitoba's soybeans were 95% harvested and grain corn 48% as of Oct 27 (Manitoba Agriculture).
Full analysis: Soybean Futures: Key Moving Averages Point to Downside Risk. Export and South America detail: Black Sea Wheat, Prairie Deliveries and Argentina Corn: Oct 27, 2026.
Canadian dollar and rates
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate to 2.5% on Oct 28 and said the Canadian dollar has recovered to around 71 cents (Bank of Canada).
The Bank said there could be a need to raise the rate further, but that it would proceed carefully. The next decision is Dec 9.
A firmer Canadian dollar was one of the factors cited for canola's Oct 29 decline (ICE via Syngenta Canada).
What to watch next week
Saskatchewan's final Crop Report of 2026 on Nov 5 (Government of Saskatchewan).
The Canadian Grain Commission's week 13 data for the week ending Nov 1.
Grain vessel movement out of the Sea of Azov while the Kerch Strait permits run through Nov 15.
Whether China's inquiry about U.S. soft red winter wheat turns into confirmed purchases, and weekly U.S. export sales for wheat, corn and soybeans.
The Canadian dollar and crude oil after the rate increase, and canola's response, ahead of the next Bank of Canada decision on Dec 9.
Whether the short-term rallies Trent flagged in canola, Chicago wheat and soybeans show up before the longer-term trends resume.
Manitoba's grain corn and flax harvest, and Ukraine's export pace and Russia's winter wheat planting.
This week's posts
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Sources: Statistics Canada, Major grain deliveries, September 2026 (Oct 26, 2026) · Statistics Canada, Oilseed crushing statistics, September 2026 (Oct 28, 2026) · Canadian Grain Commission, Grain Statistics Weekly, week 12 (Oct 19–25, 2026) · ICE Futures (via Syngenta Canada), Oct 29, 2026 · CBOT (via Farm Progress), Oct 29, 2026 · Bank of Canada, Interest rate announcement, Oct 28, 2026 · Manitoba Agriculture, Seasonal Crop Report, Oct 27, 2026 · Alberta Crop Report, Oct 20, 2026 · USDA FAS, U.S. Export Sales Weekly Highlights, Oct 16–22, 2026 · USDA AMS, Grains Inspected for Export, week ending Oct 22, 2026 · USDA FAS, Argentina Grain and Feed Update AR2026-0017, Oct 23, 2026 · Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, Oct 26, 2026 · PDQ via Glacier FarmMedia, Oct 26, 2026 · SaskToday, Oct 26, 2026 · Pro Farmer, Oct 30, 2026 · Reuters (via The Moscow Times), Oct 28, 2026 · Sizov Report · Government of Saskatchewan, Crop Report
